Category Archives: Municipalities

Analysis of the Metsimaholo 2017 by-election results and the coalition prospects in this Free State Municipality

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa was gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict the outcome of any coalition negotiations beforehand. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this blog post I will look at the municipal by-election that took place in the Metsimaholo  Municipality in the Free State on 29 November 2017, analyse the result and compare it with the 2016 local government elections that took place on 3 August 2016 and indicate what the most likely coalition government would be seeing that the no party again received 50 %+ of the allocated seats.

BACKGROUND

The Metsimaholo Local Municipality is an administrative area in the Fezile Dabi District of the Free State province. Metsimaholo means ‘big water’ in Sesotho. The municipality was established in 2000 through the amalgamation of the then Sasolburg, Deneysville and Oranjeville Transitional Local Councils.

OUTCOME OF 2016 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION IN METSIMAHOLO

The outcome of the 2016 local government elections in Metsimaholo is summarised below together with an analysis of what the potential outcome of coalition was at the time:

  • Total seats: 42
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 22
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 3 seats for a majority and the DA 10
  • Possible coalitions available at the time: The ANC could have partnered with the DA or EFF individually or together with the two smaller parties or just with the MCA (the Metsimaholo Community Association, a local party that might hold the balance of power) and FF+ who together holds 3 seats. The DA could have formed a coalition with the ANC or EFF but in the latter instance they will require the support of the one or both of the smaller parties.

COALITION FORMED AFTER THE 2016 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION

The Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a coalition in the end with the Metsimaholo Community Association (MCA) and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), supported by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), to govern the municipality. The MCA’s Sello Hlasa was elected mayor, while Arnold du Ploy and Linda Radebe of the DA were elected Speaker and Council Whip respectively.

COALITION COLLAPSED IN JULY 2017

The municipal council failed to adopt a budget for the 2017/18 financial year because of disagreements between the coalition members. As a result the council was dissolved in July 2017 and an administrator appointed by the provincial government.

For an overview of what went wrong with the DA, EFF, FF+ and MCA coalition read the following two articles:


Dissolving of council welcomed by DA

RUN-UP TO THE 2017 BY-ELECTION

The run-up to the by-election was dominated by the news that the SAPC decided to field 42 candidates to contest the Metsimaholo by-election, a turning point for the party in that it for the first time contested elections alone without its alliance partner, the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

SACP fields 42 candidates in historic first solo by-election

SACP contesting Free State by-election ‘regrettable’, says ANC

SACP ‘Hasty’ Regarding Metsimaholo By-Elections – Cosatu

The SACP has the ANC over a barrel in Metsimaholo municipality

Metsimaholo by-elections an experiment to dislodge the ANC

Municipality up for grabs

Will the Metsimaholo by-elections bring relief to its beleaguered residents?

By-Election preview: All eyes on the big contest in Metsimaholo, Free State

ELECTION DAY – 29 NOVEMBER 2017

Despite claims of irregularities and vote rigging in the Metsimaholo Municipality by-elections, the Local Government Minister Des Van Rooyen who was overseeing the process felt that all went well on election day –

Minister van Rooyen happy with Metsimaholo by-election

Earlier it was reported that Minister van Rooyen left Metsimaholo after EFF supporters allegedly blocked him from entering a polling station –

Van Rooyen leaves ‘voluntarily’ after EFF supporters allegedly block him in Metsimaholo

The SACP claimed that there was irregularities in the voting process –

SACP cries foul over Metsimaholo by-election voting process

The ANC called for an investigation into allegations of vote rigging in Metsimaholo –

ANC calls for an investigation into the allegations of vote rigging in Metsimaholo

2017 METSIMAHOLO BY-ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

Following the counting of the votes the IEC announced the Metsimaholo election results late on Friday 3 December 2017:

IEC releases Metsimaholo by-election results

Mets 1

Mets 2

The by-election results is depicted in the pictures above and summarised in the table below comparing it to the 2016 and 2011 local government election results:

Political Party

2011 % Votes

2016 % Votes

% Shifts 2011 to 2016

 2017 % Votes

% Shifts 2016 to 2017
ANC

63.04 %

 45.08 % – 17.96 % 30.24 %

– 14.84 %
DA

28.97 %

 35.22 % + 6.25 % 24.36 %

– 10,86 %
EFF Did not participate

17.87 %

 + 17.87 % 17.47 %

– 0.40 %
SAPC Did not participate

n/a

 Did not participate

7.58 %

+ 7.58 %

Of the smaller parties the FF+ increased its percentage of the vote from 2.14% to 3.02%, the MCA’s percentage dropped from 4.91% to 1.48% whilst the support for COPE and the ACDP remained fairly constant. The Matatiele-based AIC party had an impressive foray into Metsimaholo. They won a PR seat and 2.11% of the vote.

FINAL ALLOCATION OF THE AVAILABLE 42 SEATS

Final seat allocation based on the by-election result were as follows:

  • ANC 16 (three less than in 2016),
  • DA 11 (one less than in 2016),
  • EFF 8 (sames as in 2016),
  • SACP 3 (did not participate in 2016),
  • MCA 1 (one less than in 2016),
  • FF+ 1 (same as in 2016),
  • AIC 1 (did not participate in this municipality in the 2016 elections),
  • F4SD 1 (did not participate in this municipality in the 2016 elections).

REACTION TO AND ANALYSIS OF THE 2017 BY-ELECTION OUTCOME

The following articles sets out some of the reactions to the outcome of the 2017 by-election in Metsimaholo:

Metsimaholo hangs in limbo as by-elections has no outright winner

‘Really massive collapse’ in ANC support in Free State by-election

ANC support down in Metsimaholo, SACP pick up 3 seats – IEC

DA Metsimaholo has voted for a new beginning – Patricia Kopane

Metsimaholo’s elections send strong signal – SACP

An analysis of by-election result in Metsimaholo indicates that:

  1. The ANC is continuing to loose voter support at an alarming rate (since the 2011 local government elections to the latest 2017 by-election their support in Metsimaholo dropped by a staggering 32%). The majority of their losses can be ascribed to voters voting for the EFF in 2016 and now again in 2017 and to the SACP in 2017. They also lost votes to other parties such as the DA and other smaller parties but up to 25% of their losses are the result of voter support gained at their expense by the EFF and SACP. This indicates how critical the SACP is for the ANC continued power base and the party will have to put all its energy into mending the fences with their alliance partner before the 2019 general election.
  2. The by-election result also confirmed the trend that the ANC’s support base is more robust in rural areas than suburban or urban areas as they did better in more rural based wards of Metsimaholo compared to those in the towns. The ANC will have to somehow regain the trust of the urban voters if it wants to have any hope of governing again nationally after the 2019 general election.
  3. The DA percentage of the votes in 2017 compared to 2017 dropped by nearly some 11%. While the party was propelled by high turnout in the suburbs in 2016, turnout this time round was sharply down in vote-rich areas for the DA, averaging at about 25% less than 2016. There was lower turnout in the ANC-held wards as well, but the lower turnout was not as pronounced.
  4. It also seems as if many former white DA voters in Metsimaholo this time around voted for the FF+ which indicates some extent of disillusionment with DA’s direction under Mmusi Maimane with many feeling that the DA has become nothing else than an ANC light version. This is a trend that the DA will have to counter if it wants to build on its election gains of previous national and local government elections.
  5. The DA also did not have enough growth in the townships of Metsimaholo to mask their decreasing returns in the suburbs, and ultimately increase their representation on the council. The DA will have to do better in the townships in 2019 it wants to build on its election gains of previous national and local government elections.
  6. The EFF made great strides in some township wards but their growth was not uniform, and in some ANC-held Metsimaholo wards their share of the vote went down. They ended up where they began with eight seats. The EFF did not manage to increase their percentage of the overall vote in the 2017 election compared to that of 2016 in the end, leading to questions as to whether the party is about to reach a ceiling of voter support?
  7. The SACP had a solid showing in their first electoral foray and was allocated 3 PR seats on the Metsimaholo Council. They came very close to also winning Ward 3 (Refengkgotso Deneysville), where the ANC beat them by 34 votes, getting 35% of the vote compared to their 34%. The SACP was able to get over 10% of the vote in six of the 16 ANC held wards. Will the SACP continue contesting elections or put that strategy on hold if their preferred candidate wins the presidential race at the ANC conference in a few weeks’ time?
  8. Despite the FF+’s solid growth on election day, they still only have one seat on Council. They were able to hurt the DA, but were not able to attract enough DA voters to get an additional PR seat.
  9. As indicated earlier the AIC had a an impressive foray into Metsimaholo. They won a PR seat and will be an ally for the ANC if they have any chance of ruling in Metsimaholo.
  10. The MCA ended up holding onto one of their two seats but will struggle to be the factor they were in Metsimaholo after the 2016 election.
  11. The F4SD did well to gain one seat following the election.
  12. The number of political parties represented on the Metsimaholo Council increased from only 5 in 2016 to 8 in 2017. I would not say that this is any indication that in future voters will be willing to vote in large numbers for smaller parties as in my view this is a trend typically only found in local government elections.

2017 POSSIBLE COALITION SCENARIOS IN METSIMAHOLO

  • Seats required for overall majority = 22.
  • Scenario: The ANC requires 6 seats to form a majority and the DA 11.
  • Possible coalitions for the ANC: The ANC could partner with the DA or EFF individually or together with the other smaller parties to form a coalition government. Such a coalition with either the DA or EFF would however be highly unlikely and to govern without the DA or EFF they will have to secure the support of the SACP and three of the four smaller parties namely the FF+, AIC, MCA or F4SD who each gained 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions for the DA: The DA could form a coalition with the ANC or EFF but in the instance of the EFF they will require the support of either the SACP or three of the four smaller parties namely the FF+, AIC, MCA or F4SD who each gained 1 seat.

The following article sets out the three possible coalition scenarios:

By-Election: Metsimaholo – with no outright winner and entry of SACP, prepare for strange bedfellows

The three possible coalition scenarios are as follows:

“Scenario 1: DA (11) + EFF (8) + VF+ (1) + MCA (1) + F4SD (1) 22/42

The most likely scenario would see the DA returning the favour to the EFF. This week the EFF lent their votes to the DA to help defeat motions of no confidence against the respective mayors of Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay. The two parties together would have 19 out of the 22 votes needed to form a coalition which could govern in Metsimaholo. The most palatable party for both to work with would be the F4SD. Both parties were willing to work with the F4SD to rule in Rustenburg in North West. The F4SD was formed by aggrieved ANC members and they are more likely to work the opposition then the ANC. The opposition would need another two votes. The VF+ are not going to work with the ANC. The question is whether the EFF would want them in a coalition, and/or whether their supporters would tolerate them sitting with the EFF (and potentially the SACP). The MCA supported the opposition after the 2016 election. While the party was split, the leader who worked with the ANC is no longer in the party, and it is more plausible to expect them to work with the opposition again. So, the EFF and the DA have a realistic path to the needed 22/42 seats. The elephant in the room is the SACP and their valuable three seats.”

“Scenario 2: ANC (16)+SACP (3) + AIC (1) + MCA (1)-21/42 Hung Council.

The ANC knows that the first party to join them in a coalition in Metsimaholo would not be their tripartite alliance partner, the SACP, but the AIC. The ANC (16) + AIC (1) would leave the ANC five short of the magical number of 22. Let’s assume that Gwede Mantashe can broker a deal between the ANC and the SACP, and even offer the SACP the mayoral chain – that would still only take the ANC coalition to 20. They would be two short. The MCA had mixed feelings last time, and maybe the ANC could persuade them again. We would now be in hung council territory: 21. Unless the ANC offered the F4SD some rich pickings in Rustenburg, where they could offer them a place in the coalition, it is unlikely for the F4SD to work with the ANC. We know that the DA, the EFF and the VF+ will not work with the ANC. Thus it is more plausible that the ANC will not be governing in Metsimaholo.”

“Scenario 3: DA (11) + EFF (8) + SACP (3)

Ironically, a scenario which would be most stable numerically but the least stable ideologically would be a coalition with the DA (11) EFF (8) and the SACP (3) which would give them 22 seats. The DA would have to resign itself to either an EFF or an SACP mayor. The coalition could count on support from the F4SD, VF+ and possibly the MCA on policies which would suit the smaller parties, but at the same time they would not be held ransom by the smaller parties. The DA would be reluctant passengers here, but no scenario is ideal for them. Neither scenario 2 nor 3 is ideal for the SACP, and of course, scenarios 1 and 3 are not ideal for the EFF. Strange bedfellows will be holding hands in Metsimaholo.”

CONCLUSION

The South African Communist Party (SACP) has indicated that it is willing to enter into a coalition with the ANC in Metsimaholo municipality in the Free State provided the governing party meets its “conditions” which include a commitment to respect the people, fight corruption and tackle corporate capture.

SACP sets terms for ANC coalition

Where to now for Metsimaholo?

The most likely outcome for me would be a coalition between the DA (11), EFF (8), FF+ (1), MCA (1) and the F4SD (1) giving such a coalition the 22 votes to form a majority government in Metsimaholo. Only time will however tell as coalition politics sometimes makes for strange bedfellows.

 

ANC biggest loser in 2016 coalition outcome, DA biggest winner but EFF still holds the keys

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

Introduction

Following the recent local government elections, I wrote the following four posts about the state of play in the 27 hung municipal councils where none of the political parties contesting the election in a municipality had a clear majority of the seats allocated:

The final coalition whistle blew on 25 out of the 27 hung councils who had their statutory meetings to elect mayors, speakers and other office bearers before the deadline of 14 days after the IEC declared and gazetted the final results. The 2 outstanding municipal councils who still need to elect their office bearers are the following:

  1. Jozini in KwaZulu-Natal where the municipal council have met three times and every time deadlocked with 20 votes to each coalition with the ANC (19) and 1 independent councillors voting together and the IFP (18), EFF (1) and DA (1) voting together -> ANC pushing for a by-election in Jozini
  2. Kgatelopele in the Northern Cape where The DA and KCF agreed to a coalition to form a majority government with 4 seats (2 each) out of the 7 seats on the council. One of the DA Councillors was however shot execution style before the council meeting and the council therefore have 1 vacancy currently and the DA/KCF coalition could not be formalised. An ANC member was subsequently arrested and charged for the murder of the DA Councillor -> ANC ward candidate charged with DA councillor’s murder

National coalition agreements reached

Following the elections, the major political parties scurried to secure coalitions in as many of the 27 hung councils as possible (see this article for an overview of what happened behind the scenes -> The six meetings that changed South African Politics ). In the end the DA formed a coalition on a national basis with a number of smaller parties such as COPE, the UDM, ACDP and the FF+ (DA enters into coalition with UDM, ACDP, IFP, COPE) whereas the EFF decided not to enter into any formal coalitions but to support the DA in voting for office bearers in municipalities where this will result in the ANC being unseated (EFF not going into coalition government with any other party ).

This basically outmanoeuvred the ANC nationally, leaving them very little room to negotiate and secure locally agreed coalitions in a small number of the 27 hung municipal councils. As things unfolded thereafter in 25 of the 27 hung municipal councils, bore testimony that in the 2016 coalitions stakes the ANC was the biggest loser, the DA the biggest winner but that the EFF is the party that still holds the key in many of these municipalities.

Local coalition developments

Despite the nationally agreed coalitions secured by the DA and the EFF’s approach to strategically support what they called the lesser of two evils namely the DA, at local level a few interesting developments still unfolded in the following 6 hung municipal councils:

  1. Mogale City in Gauteng where despite the election of DA Mayor, an ANC speaker was elected with speculation that the IFP voted with ANC for speaker and with DA for Mayor -> Mogale City elects a DA mayor & ANC speaker
  2. Rustenburg in the North West where the EFF had its best chance to govern a municipality but where they were left disappointed when the BCM voted with the ANC to deny them this opportunity ->  Newly elected ANC mayor shocked at result
  3. Modimolle/Mookgopong in Limpopo where 2 ANC members must have voted for a DA Mayor as the DA candidate received 17 votes in total as opposed to the 15 the DA expected (7 from DA, 6 from the EFF and 2 from the FF+) ->  ANC loses Modimolle mayor post to DA
  4. Nquthu in KwaZulu-Natal where the ANC subsequently disputed the outcome of the mayoral election ->  ANC disputes outcome of Nquthu council meeting
  5. eDumbe in KwaZulu-Natal where two IFP Councillors voted together with ANC and against the wishes of their party and were subsequently expelled from the IFP ->  IFP in KZN expels two councillors for siding with ANC
  6. Kannaland in the Western Cape where ANC/DA coalition has the majority in Council although both parties have indicated that they did not officially form a coalition. The DA is busy investigating the fact that 2 DA Councillors voted with the ANC against the national leaderships wishes ->  DA to discipline Kannaland councillors

I have captured the outcome of the forming of coalitions for each of the 27 hung municipal councils in the table that’s attached at the end of this article. The information is as far as I could ascertain correct for each municipality however in a number of instances I had to make certain assumptions as all the information required was not always in the public domain. I also relied on the following valuable entry in Wikipedia that sets out in detail the outcome of the 2016 local government elections -> South African Municipal Elections, 2016 .

I then analysed the outcome across the 27 municipalities to establish certain trends as how the coalition stakes unfolded. The major findings are set out below.

Minority vs majority coalition governments

In 11 of the 27 hung municipalities (40.74%) a minority government were formed where the leading coalition did not have enough seats/votes to secure a majority government and where they will therefore have to rely on the ongoing support of another party that’s not part of the ruling coalition.

Of these 11 municipalities the EFF’s support is required in 6 minority governments led by the DA (Johannesburg, Tshwane, Mogale City, Metsimaholo, Thabazimbe and Modimolle/Mookgopong), support from the EFF in 4 minority governments led by the IFP (Endumeni, Nquthu, Abaqulusi and Mtubatuba) and the support of at least one IFP councillor in 1 ANC led minority government (eDumbe). The EFF therefore holds the keys in 10 of the 11 minority local governments which will require careful management of the coalition/EFF relationships in these municipalities.

In 14 of the 27 hung municipalities (51.85%) the leading coalition were able to form a majority government. This includes 8 DA led municipalities (Nelson Mandela Bay, Witzenberg, Hessequa, Knysna, Prince Albert, Laingsburg, Beaufort West and Ubuntu), 5 ANC led municipalities (Ekurhuleni, Rustenburg, Estcourt/Loskop, Bitou and Nama Khoi) and 1 ANC/DA led municipality (Kannaland).

In 10 of the 14 majority government municipalities (71.42%) the leading coalition has secured just enough seats/votes to secure an ordinary majority. This includes 6 DA led municipalities (Nelson Mandela Bay, Witzenberg, Hessequa, Laingsburg, Beaufort West and Ubuntu), 3 ANC led municipalities (Rustenburg, Bitou and Nama Khoi) and 1 ANC/DA led municipality (Kannaland). This means that if any by-election is to take place in any of these 10 municipalities over the next 5 years, the balance of power could potentially shift to another party/coalition.

In only 4 majority government municipalities does the leading coalition have a majority of either +1 or +2 (one or two more seats than what is required for an ordinary majority). This is for the ANC in Estcourt/Loskop and the DA in Prince Albert = +1 majority and ANC in Ekurhuleni and the DA in Knysna = +2 majority).

The remaining 2 hung municipalities (7.40%) is still to be decided (Jozini and Kgatelopele).

Ruling coalition does not include the party that got the most votes/seats in the election

In 12 of the 25 decided hung municipalities (48%) the leading coalition is a group of parties that do not include the party that received the most votes/seats in the election. The worst affected by this is the ANC with 10 out of the 12 municipalities where in 8 of them they conceded government of the municipality to the DA and 2 municipalities to the IFP. The 10 municipalities in which the ANC received the most votes/seats in the 2016 local government elections, but where they still failed to form a leading coalition government are the following (major party leading the coalition in brackets):

  1. Johannesburg (DA)
  2. Metsimaholo (DA)
  3. Mogale City (DA)
  4. Thabazimbe (DA)
  5. Modimolle/Mookgopong (DA)
  6. Endumeni (IFP)
  7. Abaqulusi (IFP)
  8. Hessequa (DA)
  9. Laingsburg (DA)
  10. Ubuntu (DA)

The DA lost 1 municipality (Bitou) where the received the most votes to the ANC and ICOSA 1 municipality (Kannaland) to an ANC/DA coalition.

The 10 municipalities lost by the ANC is a direct consequence of their failure to reach formal coalitions at national level with any of the key political parties.

Change in leading party

The following table reflects the number of hung municipal councils where there was a change in the leading party in 2016 compared to the 2011 local government elections. The list contains only 23 hung municipalities because two newly demarcated municipalities (Modimolle/Mookgopong and Estcourt/Loskop) did not exist in 2011 and 2 hung municipalities still needs to be decided (Jozini and Kgatelopele):

Untitled

The table indicates that the ANC is the biggest loser having lost 78% of the 14 hung council municipalities where a different party is leading compared to 2011.

Conclusion

The above analysis supports the notion that in the 2016 coalitions stakes the ANC was the biggest loser, the DA the biggest winner but that the EFF is the party that still holds the key in many of these municipalities.

Managing the coalitions in the 27 municipalities is going to require extraordinary wisdom, diplomacy and patience given the narrow majority margins in most of these municipalities and the fact that the leading coalitions in 10 of these municipalities will require the ongoing support of the EFF -> Difficulties of forming and maintaining coalitions

Summary table

The attached PDF document summarises the coalition outcomes in all of the 27 hung local municipalities and were used to conduct the analysis set out in this post.

2016 Coalition outcomes for 27 hung municipalities

Poll: Should the DA & EFF form coalitions in some of the key hung municipalities?

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict beforehand the outcome of any coalition negotiations. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I nevertheless looked at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In the first post the situation in the Metros was looked at ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture followed by the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces. In the third post I looked at all the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in KwaZulu-Natal  and in this  last post possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE

There are eight municipalities in the Western Cape that require coalitions, a full third of the 24 local municipalities. There are a number of small, local parties that hold the balance of power in various municipalities. These parties include Witzenberg Aksie (WA); the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (ICOSA); the Active United Front (AUF); the Knysna Unity Congress (K.U.C); the Karoo Gemeenskap Party (KGP); the Karoo Ontwikkelings Party (KOP); and the Karoo Democratic Force (KDF) (source: Peter Berkowitz).

WITZENBERG

BACKGROUND
Witzenberg Local Municipality is located within the Cape Winelands District Municipality in the Western Cape province and is classified as a Category B municipality. It is responsible for basic service provision to the demarcated municipal area that includes the towns of Ceres, Tulbagh, Prince Alfred Hamlet, Wolseley and Op-die-Berg. Rural areas within the municipal boundary are Warm Bokkeveld, Koue Bokkeveld, Agter-Witzenberg and the northern portion of Breede River Valley (Het Land van Waveren).
ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  46.38%  45.96%  -0.42%
 ANC  36.3%  32.28%  -4.02%
 WA  – 4.99% +4.99%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: DA 11 seats, ANC 8, WA 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1, COPE 1
  • Scenario: The DA short 1 seat and the ANC 4.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA could form a coalition with any of the other 5 parties represented on Council. The ANC can work with the DA or will have to go into a coalition with the WA, ICOSA, EFF and COPE.

CONCLUSION

The most likely coalition seems to be the DA working with COPE.

HESSEQUA

BACKGROUND
Hessequa Local Municipality lies at the foot of the Langeberg Mountains, with its boundaries stretching along the southern Cape coast from the Breede River in the west to Gouritsmond in the east. The N2 National Road forms the main transportation conduit across the municipality.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  40.47%  46.14%  +5.67%
 DA  47.41%  42.94%  -4.47%
 FF+  – 4.86% +4.86%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 8, FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC and DA both short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the ANC or DA could partner with the FF+.

CONCLUSION

The FF+ is the kingmaker in this municipality and a DA/FF+ coalition is the most likely outcome although FF+ leader, Pieter Mulder, served previously as an deputy minister in the ANC cabinet. Latest news reports indicates that Coalition negotiations in Hessequa ‘hit a snag’

BITOU

 BACKGROUND

Bitou Local Municipality, formerly known as Plettenberg Bay Municipality, forms part of the Eden District Municipality, which is located in the Western Cape province.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  47.56%  48.58%  +1.02%
 ANC  45.48%  40.99%  -4.49%
 AUF  – 5.36% +5.36%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6 seats, ANC 6, AUF 1
  • Scenario: The DA and ANC both short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the DA or ANC could partner with the AUF.

CONCLUSION

The AUF is the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The AUF has decide to side with the ANC to wrestle control of the municipality away from the DA -> AUF to from coalition with the ANC in Bitou Municipality .

KNYSNA

BACKGROUND

Knysna Local Municipality is part of the Eden District Municipality, located in the Western Cape province. Adjacent municipalities include George Local Municipality to the north-west and Bitou Local Municipality to the east. The municipality is also bordered by the Indian Ocean in the south.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
DA  50.83%  49.61%  -1.22%
 ANC  38.31%  32.14%  -6.17%
 COPE  6.85% 5.71% -1.14%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 21
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 11
  • Seat allocation: DA 10 seats, ANC 7, COPE 1, K.U.C 1, ACDP 1, Independent 1
  • Scenario: The DA short 1 seat and the ANC 4
  • Possible coalitions: The DA could form a coalition with any of the other parties whilst the ANC will have to form a coalition with the DA or alternatively the three smaller parties and the independent councillor.

CONCLUSION

A DA coalition with any of the three smaller parties or the independent councillor seems to be the most likely. BREAKING NEWS – The independent councillor, Velile Waxa, formed a coalition with the DA in the Knysna municipality -> Coalition deal gives DA a further 5 years in Knysna .

PRINCE ALBERT

BACKGROUND

Prince Albert Local Municipality lies on the southern edge of the Great Karoo, a semi-desert region of the Western Cape province. The municipality provides services to Leeu Gamka, Prince Albert Road, Klaarstroom and Prince Albert, and is an area with diverse investment opportunities.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  25.57%  33.53%  +7.96%
 KGP  50.45%  32.52%  -17.93%
 ANC  23.78 31.63% +7.85%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation:  DA 3 seats, KGP 2, ANC 2
  • Scenario: The DA requires 1 seat and the ANC and KGP both 2 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The DA  could work with any of the KGP or ANC. The KGP or ANC could form a coalition or any of them can decided to work with the DA.

CONCLUSION

The ANC and KGP formed a coalition after the 2011 local elections and therefore are the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA and KGP formed a coalition to manage the Prince Albert municipality for the next 5 years -> DA bags coalition deals in Prince Albert, Laingsburg and Beaufort West  .

LAINGSBURG

 BACKGROUND

Laingsburg Local Municipality is a friendly, modern Karoo town, only 280km from Cape Town. The town lies in a geologically fascinating area, steeped in history and tradition. It is a worthwhile and hospitable stop on the busy N1 highway through the Great Karoo.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  37.81%  46.08%  +8.27%
 DA  40.48%  43.88%  +3.4%
 KOP  – 4.5% +4.5%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 3, KOP 1
  • Scenario: Both the ANC and DA short 1 seat to form a majority.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the ANC and DA will have to form a coalition with the KOP to form a majority.

CONCLUSION

A DA/COPE coalition governed this municipality after the 2011 elections. The KOP is the kingmaker in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA entered into a coalition agreement with the KOP -> Karoo Parties, DA forms coalition in three hung councils .

BEAUFORT WEST

BACKGROUND

Beaufort West Local Municipality is located in the Western Cape province. The adjacent municipalities and provinces include the following: Karoo Hoogland Local Municipality, Namakwa District Municipality and Northern Cape (north-west), Ubuntu Local Municipality, Pixley Ka Seme District Municipality and Northern Cape (north), Camdeboo Local Municipality, Sarah Baartman District Municipality and Eastern Cape (east), Sarah Baartman District Municipality and Eastern Cape (south-east), Prince Albert Local Municipality (south), and Laingsburg Local Municipality (south-west).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 DA  41.01%  48.99%  +7.98%
 ANC  50.17%  42.21%  -7.96%
 KDF  – 5.18% +5.18%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: DA 6 seats, ANC 6, KDF 1
  • Scenario: Both the DA and ANC short 1 seat.
  • Possible coalitions: Both the DA and ANC will have to work with the KDF.

CONCLUSION

The KDP holds the balance of power in this municipality. BREAKING NEWS – The DA and KDF formed a coalition to wrestle control of this municipality from the ANC -> KDF: Beaufort West coalition marks the end of corruption .

KANNALAND

 BACKGROUND

Kannaland Local Municipality is classified as a Category B municipality and is responsible for basic service provision to the towns of Calitzdorp, Ladismith, Vanwyksdorp and Zoar, as well as the surrounding farming communities. Kannaland is situated about 340km north-east of Cape Town along the famous tourism Route 62. It is linked by tarred main roads to all other major centres, such as Oudtshoorn (100km), Montagu (139km), George (160km), Mossel Bay (185km) and Port Elizabeth (420km).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ICOSA  41.96%  48.14%  +6.18%
 DA  23.49%  27.52%  +4.03%
 ANC  26.67% 21.51% -5.16%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation:  ICOSA 3 seats, DA 2, ANC 2
  • Scenario: ICOSA short 1 seat and both the DA and ANC 2 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The

CONCLUSION

The seat allocation is the same as in 2011 when the ANC and ICOSA formed a coalition. Latest media reports seems to indicate that ICOSA is still talks with both the ANC and DA -> DA hoping to complete coalition deals in hung WC councils today .

NORTHERN CAPE

There are three small municipalities that require coalitions. Small parties and independents will be crucial in all three municipalities. The parties to watch are the Kgatelopele Community Forum (KCF) and the Khoisan Revolution (KSR).

UBUNTU

 BACKGROUND

Ubuntu Local Municipality is a municipality in the Pixley Ka Seme District Municipality in the Northern Cape province. Its seat is Victoria West.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  53.55%  42.04%  -11.51%
 DA  31.97%  31.21%  -0.76%
 IND  – 13.76% +13.76%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 2, Independents x2
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the DA or any one of the independent councillors. The DA will have to work with the ANC or secure the support of both the independent councillors.

CONCLUSION

The independent councillors are the kingmakers in this municipality.

KGATELOPELE

BACKGROUND

Kgatelopele Local Municipality is a Category B municipality found in the Northern Cape province. It was formerly known as Danielskuil Municipal District or Area.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  67.15%  43.05%  -24.1%
 DA  21.98%  28.1%  +6.12%
 KCF  – 22% +22%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 7
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 4
  • Seat allocation: ANC 3 seats, DA 2, KCF 2
  • Scenario: The ANC short seat 1 seat and the DA and KFC both 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the DA or KFC. The DA will have to work with either the ANC or KFC.

CONCLUSION

The KFC is the kingmaker in this municipality and could either go with the ANC or DA.

NAMA KHOI

 BACKGROUND

Nama Khoi Local Municipality is situated on the north-western side of the Northern Cape province. It forms part of the Namakwa District Municipality, with the town of Springbok as the administrative centre. It is the largest municipality in the Namakwa District Municipality. Nama and Khoisan people occupied this area for hundreds of years.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  48.92%  46.73%  -2.19%
 DA  35.15%  41.01%  +5.86%
 KSR  – 5.15% +5.15%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 17
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 7, KSR 1, COPE 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 2.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with any of the DA, KSR or COPE. The DA will have to work with the ANC or secure the support of both KSR and COPE.

CONCLUSION

The KSR and COPE holds the balance of power in this municipality.

WORD OF THANKS

Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Picture in KwaZulu-Natal

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict beforehand the outcome of any coalition negotiations. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I nevertheless looked at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In the first post the situation in the Metros was looked at ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture and in the second one the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces -> Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces

In this third post I will look at all the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal and in the last post possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCE

There are seven municipalities in the province with no outright majority party. The ANC has the most seats in five of these and the IFP in two, but the two parties are quite evenly matched in most of these municipalities.

The ANC needs the EFF as a coalition partner in most of these municipalities, assuming that ANC/IFP or ANC/DA coalitions are not on the table. There is also the chance that some councils may remain hung.

ENDUMENI

 

BACKGROUND

Endumeni Local Municipality is located 360km south-east of Johannesburg and 290km north of Durban, with well-established road, rail and air infrastructure making the Endumeni region the geographic centre of northern KwaZulu-Natal. Dundee is the service centre for the abundant northern Natal, a town of learning and also the geographical and administrative heart of northern Natal. At the base of the Endumeni Mountain, the highest peak in the Biggarsberg range of mountains is Wasbank, a small town that time appears to have passed by. Dundee and Glencoe have well-established and serviced areas for light-to-medium industry.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  51.35%  49.53% -1.82 %
 IFP  16.12%  30.52%  +14.40%
 DA  20.54% 15.59% -4.98%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 13
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 7
  • Seat allocation: ANC 6 seats, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short only 1 seat and the IFP 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could partner with any one of the IFP, DA or EFF. The IFP will have to partner with the ANC or alternatively both the DA and EFF if it wants to form a majority in this municipality.

CONCLUSION

The outcome will very much depend on which way the IFP will go with one newspaper article suggesting that they plan to cut out the ANC in six KwaZulu-Natal municipalities -> Talks about coalitions continue

NQUTHU

 BACKGROUND

Nquthu Local Municipality is an administrative area in the uMzinyathi District of KwaZulu-Natal. Nquthu is an isiZulu name meaning ‘the back of the head’. Isandlwana, the site of the historic Anglo-Zulu War battle that took place on 22 January 1879, is a well-known tourist destination worldwide. Nquthu Local Municipality is located along the north-eastern boundary of the district. It borders onto the Endumeni, eMadlangeni, AbaQulusi, Ulundi, Nkandla and Msinga Local Municipalities. It is predominantly rural in nature, with expansive rural settlements being one of the major features.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 IFP  40.07%  44.09%  +4.02%
 ANC  40.36%  42.02%  +1.66%
 NFP  16.24% 5.96% -10.28%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 33
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 17
  • Seat allocation:  IFP 15 seats, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
  • Scenario: The IFP short 2 seats and the ANC 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The IFP could partner with the ANC or the NFP or both the EFF and DA. The ANC will have to form a coalition with the IFP or alternatively the NFP with the support of one more additional seat from either the EFF or DA.

CONCLUSION

The Nquthu municipality is the only one the NFP was allowed to contest as it paid the registration fee for this municipality on time -> NFP still has Nquthu, IEC .

Given the past history between the IFP and NFP the most likely coalition is between the IFP and DA/EFF. The NFP formed a coalition with the ANC in this municipality after the 2011 municipal election but this time around both parties will have to woo over either the EFF or DA to work with it.

Read this -> Consolation for NFP in Nquthu

ESCOURT/LOSKOP

 BACKGROUND

Escourt/Loskop Local Municipality is located approximately 165km north-west of Durban and 400km south-east of Johannesburg. The National Road N3 also traverses the municipality on its western portion. The municipality comprises parts of the magisterial districts of Weenen and Estcourt; the informal settlements of Cornfields, Thembalihle and Mimosadale; Loskop and settlements around Weenen. Escourt is the largest commercial centre in the Midlands region. Weenen is a small agricultural town that is starting to emerge as a tourist destination.

This is a newly formed municipality through the amalgamation of the former uMtshezi and Imbabazane Local Municipalities

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  Newly established municipality  49.48%  n/a
 IFP Newly established municipality  39.73%  n/a
 DA Newly established municipality 4.16% n/a

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 46
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 24
  • Seat allocation: ANC 23 seats, IFP 18, DA 2, AL JAMA-AH 2, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short only 1 seat and the IFP 6.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the IFP, DA, AL JAMA or EFF. Only they can form a majority coalition in the municipality as the best that the IFP could do is to work with the DA, AL JAMA and the EFF to also hold 23 seats.

CONCLUSION

The possibility exist that this Council may remain hung.

eDUMBE

 BACKGROUND

eDumbe Local Municipality is situated within the Zululand District Municipality in the north-western part of KwaZulu-Natal. The location of the head office is in Paulpietersburg, which is 50km north of Vryheid and 59km south of Mkhondo (previously Piet Retief).

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  27.61%  50.65%  +23.04%
 DA  4.44%  25.26%  +20.82%
 IFP  16.03% 15.57% -0.46%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 16
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 9
  • Seat allocation: ANC 8 seats, DA 5, IFP 3
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 4.
  • Possible coalitions: Only the ANC can form a majority coalition in eDumbe by working with the DA or IFP. The best the DA can do is to match the 8 seats of the ANC by working with the IFP.

CONCLUSION

This is one of the municipalities that the NFP controlled after the 2011 municipal elections. In 2016 the possibility exist that the Council may remain hung.

ABAQULUSI

 BACKGROUND

AbaQulusi Local Municipality is a local municipality in Zululand in the KwaZulu-Natal province. It is named after the AbaQulusi, a Zulu clan whose descendants live in the vicinity of Vryheid, Utrecht, eDumbe and eNgoje.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  38.52%  46.22%  +7.7%
 IFP  35.01%  42.14%  +7.13%
 DA  6.65% 7.13% +0.7%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 44
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 23
  • Seat allocation: ANC 21 seats, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the IFP 4.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the IFP or DA. The IFP on the other hand will have to work with both the DA and EFF.

CONCLUSION

The outcome will very much depend on which way the IFP will go with one newspaper article suggesting that they plan to cut out the ANC in six KwaZulu-Natal municipalities -> Talks about coalitions continue

JOZINI

 BACKGROUND

Jozini Local Municipality is located in northern KwaZulu-Natal and borders Swaziland and Mozambique. The Lebombo Mountains and Makhatini Flats provide a diverse and beautiful terrain rich in local resources, including water features and fossil sites. Both Ndumu and Mkuzi Game Reserves can be found straddling the borders of the Jozini Municipality.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  49.84%  47.88%  -1.96%
 IFP  39.58%  46.18%  +6.6%
 EFF  – 1.99% +1.99%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19 seats, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the IFP 3.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the IFP or any two of the EFF, DA or the independent councillor. The IFP can partner with the ANC or the EFF/DA/Independent.

CONCLUSION

The IFP seems to want to cut out the ANC in as many of the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal as possible. The most probable coalition therefore is that of the IFP and the EFF/DA/Independent.

Read this -> DA could be kingmaker in KZN and KZN coalition cards close to the chests .

MTUBATUBA

 BACKGROUND

Mtubatuba Local Municipality is situated along the northern coastal belt of KwaZulu-Natal and in the south-eastern corner of the uMkhanyakude District Municipality. Mtubatuba is located roughly 200km north of Durban and 55km north of the Richards Bay/Empangeni metropole along the N2 National Route. Mtubatuba has developed from a railway siding into a strong sub-regional commercial, service, transport and administrative centre for the entire north-eastern Zululand region.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party 2011 % vote 2016 % vote % Shift
 IFP  39.88%  44.86%  +4.98%
 ANC  40.86%  43.98%  +3.12%
 DA  3.82% 3.82% +2.81%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 40
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 21
  • Seat allocation:  IFP 18 seats, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
  • Scenario: Both the IFP and ANC short 3 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The IFP and ANC could partner with one another or alternatively the DA and one or both of the EFF or AIC.

CONCLUSION

The IFP seems to want to cut out the ANC in as many of the hung councils in KwaZulu-Natal as possible. The most probable coalition therefore is that of the IFP and the DA/EFF.

THE NEXT BLOG POST

In the last post in this series on municipal coalitions I will look at the situation in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

WORD OF THANKS

Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

 

Coalition Fever: An Overview of the picture in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces

Posted by TwoSidesToEverything on

INTRODUCTION

Following the 2016 local elections, South Africa is gripped with coalition fever, with 27 municipalities having hung councils where no one political party has more than 50% of the allocated seats.

Forming coalitions is an exercise in real politics ( politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises) and its therefore dangerous to predict the outcome of any coalition negotiations beforehand. Relying on what is speculated in the mainstream media is especially fraught with danger as evidenced in this article looking at what transpired in 2006 in Cape Town when parties were also faced with a hung council scenario Anatomy of a coalition coup: Are there lessons ahead of the August election?

In this series of blog posts I will nevertheless look at the possible coalitions in each of the 27 municipalities. In my first post I looked at the situation in the Metros ->  Coalition Fever: An Overview of the Metro Picture and in this one I will look at the situation in the Free State, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West Provinces, followed by a third post looking at KwaZulu-Natal and a last post looking possible coalitions in the Western and Northern Cape Provinces.

Note – Thanks to the IEC and Paul Berkowitz for the pictures used in this series of blog posts. Paul wrote an excellent summary on the coalition picture outside of the Metros which could be read here ->  Coalition politics: what’s possible outside of the metros .

FREE STATE PROVINCE

The only municipality in the Free State with a hung council is that of Metsimaholo.

METSIMAHOLO

 BACKGROUND

The Metsimaholo Local Municipality is an administrative area in the Fezile Dabi District of the Free State province. Metsimaholo means ‘big water’ in Sesotho. The municipality was established in 2000 through the amalgamation of the then Sasolburg, Deneysville and Oranjeville Transitional Local Councils.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC  63.04%  45.08%  -17.96%
 DA  28.97%  35.22%  +6.25%
 EFF  – 17.87% +17.87 %

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 42
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 22
  • Seat allocation: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 3 seats for a majority and the DA 10
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could partner with the DA or EFF individually or together with the two smaller parties or just with the MCA (the Metsimaholo Community Association, a local party that might hold the balance of power) and FF+ who together holds 3 seats. The DA could form a coalition with the ANC or EFF but in the latter instance they will require the support of the one or both of the smaller parties.

CONCLUSION

I agree with Paul Berkowitz that the ANC has more options in Metsimaholo than the DA. A lot however depends on the decision of the MCA, a crucial partner in two of the possible coalitions. Looking at the latest news articles it seems that the MCA is not open to discussing coalitions with the ANC ->  Cold shoulder for ruling party

GAUTENG PROVINCE

Other than the three metros Mogale City is the only other municipality in Gauteng that will require a coalition. An ANC-led coalition is most likely, as the party only needs 1 more seat for a majority, while a coalition of minority parties requires the participation of every other party.

MOGALE CITY

 BACKGROUND

Mogale City Local Municipality lies directly west and south of the City of Johannesburg and City of Tshwane Metropolitan areas respectively, and forms part of one of the three district municipalities that make up the peripheral areas of the Gauteng province. To the north, west and south it borders onto the Madibeng, Rustenburg and Rand West City Local Municipalities respectively. The northern part of Mogale City comprises the bulk of the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site. Mogale City’s strongest functional urban linkage is with the City of Johannesburg. Krugersdorp and the greater Kagiso area.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

 2016 % vote % Shift
ANC 60.36%  48.84% -11.52%
 DA  32.89% 34.88%  +1.99%
 EFF  –  11.65%  +11.65%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 77
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 39
  • Seat allocation: ANC 38 seats, DA 27, EFF 9,  FF+ 2, IFP 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 1 seat and the DA 12.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC only requires 1 seat and can therefore form a coalition with the DA or EFF or any of the two smaller parties. The DA will require the support of the EFF, FF+ and IFP to be able to form a majority.

CONCLUSION

Its likely that the ANC will be able to form a coalition as it requires the support of just one of the smaller parties.

NORTH WEST PROVINCE

There is only one municipality in need of a coalition in the North West province, but it’s a very important one. Rustenburg is the only contested municipality where the EFF is the ‘official opposition’. The roles of the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) and the Botho Community Movement (BCM) will be important.

RUSTENBERG

 BACKGROUND

Rustenburg Local Municipality is a Category B municipality situated within the Bojanala Platinum District Municipality in the North West province. Rustenburg is a large town situated at the foot of the Magaliesberg Mountain Range. Rustenburg (meaning ‘town of rest’ or ‘resting place’) was proclaimed a township in 1851. This large town is situated some 112km north-west and is a 90-minute drive from both Johannesburg and Pretoria.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties are indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC 71.88% 48.55%  -23.33%
 EFF – 26.76% +26.76%
 DA 20.1% 16%  -4.1%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 89
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 45
  • Seat allocation:  ANC 43 seats, EFF 24, DA 14, F4SD 4,  AIC 1, FF+ 1, UDM 1, BCM 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats for a majority and the EFF 21 seats.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC can form a coalition with the EFF or DA or F4SD (a new party made up of disgruntled ANC councillors) or any two of the smaller parties who holds 1 seat each. The EFF will require the support of the DA & F4SD and three of the smaller parties that holds one seat each.

CONCLUSION

Although the ANC only requires 2 seats and the EFF 21, the outcome is close to call given the kingmaker role that can be played by the F4SD and BCM -> Little known party could be play kingmaker in Rustenburg & BCM will not compromise community in coalition talks .

Read also this -> EFF might lead coalition government in Rustenburg – Shivambu 

LIMPOPO PROVINCE

There are two municipalities in the Limpopo Province in need of a coalition namely Thabazimbi and Modimolle/Mookgopong.

THABAZIMBI

 BACKGROUND

Thabazimbi Local Municipality is located within the Waterberg District Municipality in the south-western part of the Limpopo province, has Botswana as its international neighbour, and is a mere two-hour drive from Pretoria. Thabazimbi is known as ‘mountain of iron’, which is a Setswana name referring to the highly lucrative iron ore reef first discovered in the municipality in 1919.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC 62.71% 45.3% -17.4%
 DA 19.86% 22.21%  +2.35%
 EFF – 20.24% +20.24%

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 23
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 12
  • Seat allocation: ANC 10 seats, EFF 5, DA 5, TRA 2,  FF+ 1
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats and the EFF and DA 7.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could form a coalition with the EFF or DA or the TRA (Thabazimbi Residents Association). The EFF and DA can work together but then they will also have to get the cooperation of the TRA.

CONCLUSION

The TRA is the kingmakers in this municipality and depending on who they agree to work with (ANC or DA/EFF) is going to have the majority.

MODIMOLLE/MOOKGOPONG

BACKGROUND

Mookgopong/Modimolle Local Municipality is situated within the Waterberg District in the Limpopo province. It was established by the amalgamation of the Mookgopong and Modimolle Local Municipalities in August 2016. The municipality occupies a strategic position from the main markets of the country by being at the south entrance of the province. It enjoys easy access from the main national arteries, the N1 and R101.

ELECTION RESULT AND VOTER SHIFTS

The 2016 election result is depicted in the picture above. The voter shift from the 2011 election for the three major parties is indicated in the table below:

Political Party

2011 % vote

 2016 % vote % Shift
 ANC Newly demarcated municipality 47.71% n/a
 DA Newly demarcated municipality 40.92%  n/a
 EFF Newly demarcated municipality 5.12% n/a

COALITION PICTURE

  • Total seats: 28
  • Minimum seats for a majority: 15
  • Seat allocation: ANC 13 seats, DA 7, EFF 6, FF+ 2
  • Scenario: The ANC short 2 seats for a majority, the DA 8 and the EFF 9.
  • Possible coalitions: The ANC could work with the DA or EFF or the FF+ who has the exact number of seats they require. The DA could form a coalition with the ANC or the EEF + the FF+.

CONCLUSION

The FF+ is the kingmakers in this municipality should the ANC decide not work with the DA or EFF.

THE NEXT BLOG POST

In the next post I will look at the situation in the KwaZulu-Natal Province.